Stock market predictions are everywhere—and can be pretty confusing. Tyler Dolan, CFP®, shows Grownups how to make sense of investment info overload.
The financial media is full of stock market predictions. They’re everywhere—and they’re often contradictory. If you Google “stock market predictions” you’ll see a slew of articles from various sources including US News, Marketwatch, Forbes, and Goldman Sachs, and they all say something different. For 2017, for example, some call for a 3 percent gain; others are predicting a 10 percent return. I even saw one prediction that anticipates the S&P 500 falling by 80 percent. (That would be twice as bad as the financial crisis of 2008!)
Don’t panic! Take a breath. I didn’t include that one to scare you. I just wanted to highlight how drastically different predictions out there can be. At a fundamental level, this is how the stock market works. One investor may want to sell a share of stock because they think it’s overpriced. An investor on the other side of the transaction may buy that share of stock because they think it’s a good deal. Each investor perceives the future performance differently; as such, they subscribe to a different prediction.
I get it, and I can guess what you might be thinking: So, which prediction should I put my stock in? (Pun fully intended.)
None of ‘em. Don’t read too far into them. Take ‘em with a grain of salt (and while we’re at it, add a lime wedge, too). Of course there’s a lot of thought and research that goes into these predictions, and sometimes they’re right. But they’re often wrong. There are too many variables at play to always be accurate (such as ever-changing economic conditions, geopolitical and/or military conflicts, changes in monetary and/or foreign policy, etc.). If they’re right all the time, I think they’d be rich enough that they wouldn’t have to publish their annual predictions.
For example, WalletHub recently published their 10 Financial Predictions of 2017. They predict the “S&P 500 won’t do much better than an online savings account”, calling for a gain of 0.75 percent. According to their Banking Landscape Report, the average online savings account has a 0.65 percent Average Percentage Yield (APY—it’s basically a fancy term for “interest rate”). So, what do you do with this information? Do you sell all of your investments and put all of the money into an online savings account because it’s a less risky place to keep it?
In a word, no.
Why not? Because your investments should be in line with your goals, your time horizon for those goals, and (most importantly) your risk tolerance. If you’ve decided to invest for one of your goals, you should understand and be comfortable with the risk you’re taking with these investments. You should understand that financial markets are volatile. There are years when the stock market is up, some when it’s down, and some years it’s pretty flat (like WalletHub’s prediction for 2017).
For example, check out the calendar year performance of the S&P 500 since 1988 (provided by Standard & Poors; “Total Return” figures include dividends).
Now check out a chart of the S&P 500 over the past 30 years (from Google Finance):
If you’re a visual learner like me, these illustrations will paint a pretty clear picture: The stock market is volatile. Your investment account balance will probably go up and down in the short term. But! Look at the peaks and valleys on the long-term chart. Historically, that’s what the stock market does. Past performance isn’t an indicator of future performance, but the stock market tends to recover from its downturns over time. I’ll let you (along with your personal financial planner) decide what the long-term trajectory of the chart looks like. Approach your investments knowing there will probably be market downturns along the way. They might really stress you out. Trust me, I understand; I’ve been through a couple.
Overall, the moral of the story is stay the course. The late Sir John Templeton said it perfectly: “The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘this time it’s different.'”
Tune out the noise that the media creates about the stock market. Don’t make knee-jerk reactions to their predictions, and don’t panic during market downturns. Hang in there.
Overwhelmed by stocks and investing? Take our online class, You’re a Grownup (Don’t Panic!) and get a better sense of financial basics.
Tyler is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner who believes financial education can empower people to reach their goals.
Any third-party resources or websites referenced above are not under Society of Grownups control. Society of Grownups cannot guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of the resources, websites, or any products or services available through such resources or websites.
While Society of Grownups hopes the information is useful, it’s only intended to provide general education. It’s not legal, tax, or investment advice, and may not apply or be useful to your specific financial situation. If you need recommendations geared to your personal financial situation, schedule time with a financial planner.